Thursday, November 10, 2005

How will Gloria play her cards in the event of a diplomatic crisis?

Six US servicemen on "R and R" in Subic. A young lady in a karaoke bar. A van driven by a Filipino driver. The servicemen and the lady get inside the van. She emerges later almost unconscious and cries rape. The six servicemen say she was a prostitute. What do we have here? Stuff that could trigger a diplomatic crisis for Georgie and Gloria. I would leave the arguments to the lawyers and the activists, and indulge instead in a useless speculation on what's to happen next.

Scenario 1. The six servicemen are allowed to leave the country before trial begins. Georgie tells Gloria, "I'm sorry Gloria, we don't trust your system."

How will Gloria react?

Scenario 2. The six servicemen stay in the country, but the trial drags on beyond the one year deadline under the VFA because the judge is always sick. Sometimes, its the fiscal who gets sick, sometimes its the stenographer. And the case is archived as the six servicement leave for Japan. Georgie tells Gloria, "It's your fault, your judge is too slow."

How will Gloria react?

Scenario 3. The six servicemen stay in the country, tried for one year, get convicted and sentenced to die. Georgie tells Gloria. "Absolute pardon or you will have coup. Your system sucks."

How will Gloria react?

Scenario 4. The six servicemen get acquitted. Georgie tells Gloria, "Let's put this behind us. This should not ruin our long standing relationship, in general, and the VFA, in particular."

How will Gloria react?

Scenario 5: The complainant withdraws her complaint, and the six servicemen leave. Georgie tells Gloria, "it wasn't rape after all. I don't want a repetition of this episode in the future. You should give ID cards to your prostitutes."

How will Gloria react?

How I wish in each of these scenarios she would stand up to that smirk and give him a smack in the face, "This is about justice. George. The dignity of our women and the sovereignity of our laws."

Unfortunately, she is on national security mode, which means I will not get my wish. Instead, she'd probably send Mike Defensor again to make sure things get fixed.


Anonymous said...

I do not know. I am not a fan of hers but I think she has regained significant ground since July. I think she may be right in saying she is the winner (as of now, of course--things may change). The biggest losers I think are FVR and JDV. They have shown their hand to everyone. They greatly underestimated her and made a big miscalculation in supporting her in July, hoping she would meekly follow their wishes afterwards. It would have been easier for them to remove Noli on a round 2 if they had let go of her in July. As for the Filipino people, they continue to be on the losing side.

My forecast: she will survive.

hawkeye said...

GMA don't the guts to go against what George wants. The Americans will go home unscathed and GMA will get George's support.

But the Filipinos will live like helpless chickens.

Its time to make a stand.